Traders on Polymarket are betting on Harris’s odds of beating Trump, challenging the dominance of conventional polls

In election race, prediction markets are challenging traditional polling

By Seamus Webster | Fortune
Before scientific polling was well established in the late 1930s and early 1940s, economics professor Koleman Strumpf told Fortune that betting markets were where newspapers got their election predictions. “Newspapers would report on this on the front page, pretty much for at least the last month before the election, but usually much longer than that,” Strumpf said. “Almost every major city in the U.S. had their own market, but the biggest one was in New York, and it literally existed right outside Wall Street.”