Online-trading startup Kalshi sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, arguing the regulator wrongfully denied its application to launch a market for derivatives tied to results of congressional elections. Several states outlaw gambling on elections—a fact that was key to the CFTC’s rejection of Kalshi’s plan. But demand could be high. One overseas platform, Betfair.com, handled more than $2 billion of bets on the 2020 presidential election, according to data scraped by Wake Forest economist Koleman Strumpf.

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